Long-term growth in the U.S. retail market is projected to grow at ~2.2% CAGR through 2030.

The U.S. retail sector continues to expand as consumers embrace both online and in-store shopping, with technology-enabled experiences enhancing convenience and engagement. Growth is particularly strong in value-focused and specialty categories, reflecting shifts in spending priorities and evolving lifestyle trends.
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  • U.S. Discount and Variety retailers are projected to grow at ~5–8% CAGR through 2030, as inflation-conscious consumers continue prioritizing value and convenience over discretionary spending.
  • Market reports estimate the U.S. Pet Care market could grow over $27 billion of additional revenue by the end of the decade, as owners increase non-discretionary spend in the category.
  • U.S. Furniture retail sales are projected to grow at over 6% annually through 2033, with both e-commerce and physical stores contributing to category expansion.
  • Total market revenue is projected to increase by over $23 billion in the U.S. Footwear category through 2030, driven primarily by athletic and casual lifestyle segments.
  • Hardware retail sales in the U.S. are expected to grow about 2% annually through the early 2030s, supported by resilient DIY and professional contractor spending despite housing slowdowns.
  • Agricultural Supply retailers plan ~100 new store openings in 2026, further expanding retail access and service availability across rural and exurban markets.
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Sources: Capital One Shopping, The Business Research Company, Grand View Research, Deep Market Insights, Mordor Intelligence, Marketing LTB, ZipDo, Ken Research.